Today is a travel day in the MLB so there are only seven games on tap for tonight. Luckily, we were still able to find three MLB player props to lock in. Let's get into it.
MLB Player Prop # 1: Anthony Santander to Hit a Home Run (+400) Fanatics
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays, 6:50 p.m. ET on FS1
Santander has been absolutely on fire recently, and he is definitely a batter that you want to target going up against a right-handed pitcher. On the year, Santander has 14 home runs, 11 of which have come against RHP, and he is facing a righty tonight in Ryan Pepiot of the Rays.
His ISO rate (which stands for Isolated Power, essentially a measure of how much power a better has) on the season against righties is 26%, which is in the "excellent" category, according to FanGraphs. From there, his fly-ball rate (how often the batter hits a fly-ball) is up to 57.6% against RHP, which would be good for the second-highest in MLB. His pull-rate (how often the batter pulls the ball when they make contact) of 47.2% is also very good. That number that would be the 24th-highest in the MLB as well. Over the last two weeks, he has hit five home runs, and all five of them have been against righties.
On the entire season, he has an ISO rate of 25.3%, which is still in the excellent category (FanGraphs considers an ISO rate of 25% and above "excellent," which is the highest grading they give). Another reason to back Santander is his launch angle of 23.8 degrees (the degree at which the ball leaves the bat when the batter makes contact), which is the third-highest launch angle in all of baseball. For context, the sweet spot for home runs from a launch angle perspective is 25-35 degrees, and he's close to averaging that every time he makes contact.
Admittedly, the pitching matchup against Ryan Pepiot is generally more ideal for right-handed hitters as opposed to a lefty, and Santander is a switch hitter who will be batting lefty today. Even with that thought in mind, Santander has been so good recently that we are still comfortable riding with him to hit one out of the park tonight.
MLB Player Prop #2: Jose Berrios under 17.5 Outs (+128) FanDuel
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 8:10 p.m. ET
This play is admittedly going to feel scary, as this is a number that Toronto's Berrios has gone over in 11 of his 13 starts on the year. But, with that said, fading a play that has such a high win percentage means you can find some real value, which we are getting at +128 odds.
Berrios appears due for some regression, which is why we are fading him tonight. His ERA looks pretty at 2.80, but his expected ERA is 4.40, with a FIP (Fielding-Independent Pitching, similar to ERA but without the results of balls hit into play) of 4.39 and expected FIP of 4.09 showing that he is getting lucky to have that low of an ERA. He is facing a Brewers lineup tonight that is a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks in basically every metric.
Over the past 14 days, the Brewers have the ninth-best wRC+ against RHP, the ninth-best wOBA, 10th-best wRAA, 10th-best OPS, third-best OBP and the fourth-best average. Those last two categories are especially enticing for an outs prop, as it hopefully means that the Brewers are able to get a lot of runners on base to rack up the pitch count for Berrios.
MLB Player Prop #3: Ryan Mountcastle to Hit a Home Run (+450) BetMGM
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays, 6:50 p.m. ET on FS1
For our third and final pick of the day, let's head back to the Orioles vs. Rays game and back another Oriole, Ryan Mountcastle, to hit a dinger. Mountcastle is similar to Santander in that he is on an absolute heater recently, and also is much better against right-handed pitching.
Let's start with Pepiot, as we haven't done any analysis on him yet: he is a decent pitcher, but his weakness is allowing a lot of fly-balls, specifically fly-balls to right-handed hitters. While he has given up three home runs each to righties and lefties, his advanced splits show that he is a better matchup to target against RHH specifically.
His fly-ball rate allowed is an absurd 59.7% to righties, and his HardHit rate is 12% higher against right-handed hitters. He allows a HardHit rate of 35.8% to righties, up from 23.3% against lefties. That fly-ball rate of 59.7% would be the worst in MLB by a mile, and the HardHit rate of 35.8% would be the fifth-worst in the league as well.
Mountcastle, as mentioned previously, has been hitting very well recently. He has hit five home runs over the last two weeks with an ISO rate of 33.3% in that stretch. Like Santander, all five of Mountcastle's home runs in that stretch have come against RHP. On the season, his fly-ball rate against RHP is 45%, which is a really good number, but over the last two weeks that jumps up to 52.9%, and his HardHit rate during that stretch is an absurd 55.9%, which would lead MLB by a mile. Let's hope he stays hot tonight.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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